With house prices in Ireland having increased 153% from their 2012 low and the nationwide average asking price for a residential unit €326,469 (Daft.ie) in Q1 2024, what is the prospect for the industry and society at large?

The latest property price figures show the cost of buying a home up 10% in the last 12 months, the big question for may coming into the 2024 election is finding a place to live at a price they can afford.

Although the economy continues to perform well, unemployment is low and we have a growing population, house prices remain out of reach for many. House prices are now 13.4% above their 2007 peak. Bank interest rates are likely to reduce further as the ECB continues to cut rates as it achieves its target OF keeping inflation below 2%.

House completions continue to be below market demand with estimates for 2024 expected to be 32,000 units (below 2023 completions). The Central Bank has calculated that if the Government wants to reduce the deficit in the next 10 years, it will need to build close to 70,000 homes per year.

As we enter into the election, many promises are being made by politicians with claims of achievable targets of 50,000 units being built in the coming years and even the potential of a state run construction vehicle operating in tandem with the private sector.

Yet to really move the dial on housing will require a raft of sectoral changes such as speedier planning decisions, an increased supply of serviced land and a higher number of construction companies of scale building residential developments. According to the Central Bank, the financial crash and a decade of under investment in the construction industry has led to an over reliance on too many small companies to build residential units.

Many of the smaller companies, lack the economies of scale and the modern equipment & machinery required to build the housing units on the scale demanded.

The key issue now is if the promises made are simply attempts to woo an alienated public or realistic targets that the state can achieve?

2025 will tell us more!